2018 hurricane forecast shows another active year

2018 hurricane forecast shows another active year

2018 hurricane forecast shows another active year

The half-yearlong Atlantic hurricane season in 2018 started Friday with forecasters expecting wild storms to happen as frequently as past year.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said last week that 10 to 16 named storms may form this season with five to nine developing into hurricanes.

In the latest seasonal outlook released Thursday, researchers with CSUs Tropical Meteorology Project predicted the 2018 season will have a total of 14 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes, which are storms Category 3 or higher with wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour.

In 2017, three major hurricanes - out of the 17 named storms - touched USA soil causing devestation. Of those, seven are expected to be hurricanes, three of them Category 3 or greater.

Much of the prediction is based on the fact that the last twenty years have been some of the most active storm seasons in recent history.

The 30-year average is 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. "We're going to spend time spinning them up on the hurricane season, spinning them up on the science".

According to NOAA, forecasters predict a 35 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a fairly normal season and a 25 percent chance of a below-average season.

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A half-dozen of the nation's leading hurricane season prognosticators are at odds about how active the hurricane season will be.

The Colorado State forecast calls for a total of 13 named storms, which means tropical storms or hurricanes. "If you wait until a named storm is moving in your direction, you will be too late". However, even if Floridians buy flood insurance now, it might not take effect for the start of hurricane season.

Decreasing tracking error is among the Hurricane Center's most significant successes, said John Cangialosi, a hurricane specialist there. It covers the Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Dilley also believes this part of Florida is in for above normal rainfall for another 15 years or so, like the rainy period in the 1940s.

"We issue these forecasts to satisfy the curiosity of the general public and to bring attention to the hurricane problem", the university said. If the Bermuda-Azores High is farther east in the Atlantic, storms tend to head toward the USA coast and then curve north out to sea.

Preparation is the spice of life when it comes to hurricanes. NWS data indicates that intensity predictions, which are based on wind speed, have consistently hovered around 10 knots at the one-day before landfall mark, with a slight decline at the two-day mark since 1990.

It was the first time the island had been without people in over 300 years, said the country's United States ambassador, Ronald Sanders.

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